Outputs from ICN 2016



A manifesto for predictive conservation. 

Henry Travers, Matthew Selinske, Anca Serban-Damerell, Francesca Mancini and Sean Maxwell arranged a workshop at ICCB 2017 linked to their work during ICN.

Tuesday 25th of July, 13:30-14:30, Secretaría General

HenryTo successfully address the current rate of biodiversity loss it is essential to anticipate the challenges of a rapidly changing world and use predictions to shape the design of conservation interventions. In recent years, interdisciplinary predictive approaches have been tested by conservation scientists, but these approaches are yet to be applied systematically to frame conservation problems or inform management decisions. In the context of climate change and rapid economic development in biodiversity rich countries, predictive approaches can identify emerging threats and quantify risks. Increased attention is being given to evidence-based approaches, but management decisions are still often based on subjective judgments or perceived best practice, leaving them open to bias and vulnerable to failure. Predictive approaches allow practitioners to estimate the effectiveness of conservation interventions prior to implementation while accounting for local context and minimising the risk of policy failures.

In this workshop, we will review predictive methods, showcase how these novel approaches can be used by researchers and practitioners, and discuss methods used by other disciplines that may have applications in conservation. An expert panel, leading figures in conservation science, will discuss the potential of predictive approaches, followed by a 30-minute general discussion with the audience and panel members. The workshop is organised and chaired by early-career researchers.

Organisers: Henry Travers, Matthew Selinske, Anca Serban-Damerell, Francesca Mancini and Sean Maxwell

Panel: E.J. Milner-Gulland, James Watson, Mark Burgman, Sarah Bekessy, Lousie Glew



Prue Addison wrote a blog after the ICN workshop about Knowledge Exchange: 

Nicki Shumway wrote a blog after the ICN workshop about her experience of the event



Arlidge William N S, Joseph W Bull, Prue F E Addison, Michael J Burgass, Dimas Gianuca, Taylor Gorham, Céline Jacob, Nicole Shumway, Samuel P Sinclair, James E M Watson, Chris Wilcox, E J Milner-Gulland, “A Global Mitigation Hierarchy for Nature Conservation”, BioScience, Volume 68, Issue 5 (2018), 336–347.

Mason Tom, Chris Pollard, Deepthi Chimalakonda, Angela M. Guerrero, Catherine Kerr‐ Smith, Sergio Milheiras, Michaela Roberts, Paul R. Ngafack, Nils Bunnefeld. “Wicked conflict: Using wicked problem thinking for holistic management of conservation conflict.” Conservation letters 11, no. 6 (2018), e12460.

Travers Henry, Matthew Selinske, Ana Nuno, Anca Serban, Francesca Mancini, Tatsiana Barychka, Emma Bush, Ranaivo A. Rasolofoson, James EM Watson, E. J. Milner-Gulland. “A manifesto for predictive conservation.” Biological Conservation, volume 237 (2019), 12-18.