Emily Nicholson

Socio-ecological systems and bioeconomic models: Historically, conservation and natural resource policy has taken a piecemeal approach to drivers of biodiversity loss. The development of policy to ensure the supply of ecosystem services and biodiversity requires an improved understanding of the interactions between large scale drivers and local-level resource use. I am currently working the linkages between socio-economic and environmental aspects of a complex socio-ecological system in Madagascar. Lac Alaotra has seen rapid conversion of a once-extensive wetland system to one of the key rice-production areas of the country, is the country's largest inland fishery, and is of high biodiversity value. We are taking two approaches to studying this socio-ecological system. First, we are describing the long-term trends and potential future policies. Second, we are developing a household-level bioeconomic model to understand the allocation of labour and capital between rice and fish production in Lac Alaotra. Along with Andrea Coombs, EJ, Julia Jones, and Richard Young (Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust), we are also working on understand fishers' spatial behaviour and how it is affected by conservation interventions.

The role of monitoring in wildlife conservation: A fundamental component of successful resource management is monitoring. The aim of this project is to develop a framework for optimal monitoring of conservation activities, integrating both monitoring for compliance and monitoring for detection of biodiversity trends. We are developing a model framework that integrates the dynamics of socio-economic and ecological systems, to explore the effectiveness and efficiency of monitoring strategies that target resource users' behaviour and populations of conserved species. We are applying the framework to case studies in Madagascar, in collaboration with E.J. Milner-Gulland, Julia Jones, Matt Somerville, Aidan Keane, and Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, and funded by the Leverhulme Trust.

Assessing the threat status of ecological communities: Conservationists are increasingly interested in determining the threat status of ecological communities as a key part of their planning efforts. Such assessments have proved difficult due to conceptual challenges and a lack of generally-accepted criteria. There are two components to my research on protocols for Red listing ecological communities. First is a paper (Nicholson et al in press, Conservation Biology), in which we critically reviewed twelve currently-available protocols for assessing communities, and identified conceptual and operational issues associated with developing a rigorous, transparent, and universal set of criteria for assessing communities. This work was in collaboration with David Keith (NSW Dept. of Environment and Climate Change, NSW, Australia) and David Wilcove (Princeton University). The second component is my participation in a working group, led by Jon Paul Rodriguez, to develop a set of Red List criteria for ecosystems, analogous to the Red List standards for species.

Conservation planning: I completed my PhD in 2006 in the Spatial Ecology Lab, part of the University of Queensland's Ecology Centre, supervisored by Professor Hugh Possingham (University of Queensland), Bob Pressey (JCU) and Wayne Rochester (CSIRO Marine). During my PhD I examined the use of measures of persistence in multiple species conservation planning.I developed a method for optimising landscapes for the persistence of metapopulations for multiple species, to account for the impact on species viability of the amount, quality and spatial configuration of habitat in a reserve network. I also explored the impact of different conservation objectives and parameter uncertainty on conservation decisions. As well as developing new tools for conservation planning, I have also gained experience in existing conservation planning tools, including Marxan, developed by Ian R. Ball and Hugh Possingham, and C-Plan, the conservation planning tool developed by New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service (NSW NPWS). As well as developing new tools for conservation planning, I have also gained experience in existing conservation planning tools, including Marxan, developed by Ian R. Ball and Hugh Possingham, and C-Plan, the conservation planning tool developed by New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service (NSW NPWS). In my previous post-doc, I worked with David Wilcove (Princeton University). in collaboration with Florida Chapter of The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and Florida Natural Areas Inventory (FNAI) to develop methods for assessing conservation progress and priorities in Florida. We assessed the current protection status of 180 species and 30 ecological communities, as well as the potential conservation gains of alternative land acquisition plans, including the Florida Forever programme.

Uncertainty in decision-making for conservation: Conservation decisions are inevitable made with incomplete and uncertain data, and based on uncertain models. Therefore better tools and frameworks are needed that take the uncertainty into account, and to find solutions that are robust to uncertainty. This is a focus of our current work in Madagascar. As part of my PhD research I applied information-gap decision theory, a methods developed by Yakov Ben-Haim, to multi-species conservation planning (see papers to download pdf).

Rodriguez J.P., Rodriguez-Clark K.M., Baillie J.E.M., Ash N., Benson J., Boucher T., Brown C., Burgess N., Collen B., Jennings M., Keith D.A., Nicholson E., Revenga C., Reyers B., Rouget M., Smith T., Spalding M., Taber A., Walpole M., Zager I. & Zamin T. (2010). Establishing IUCN Red List Criteria for threatened ecosystems. Conservation Biology, in press [email for a pdf]

Lahoz-Monfort J.J., Guillera-Arroita G., Milner-Gulland E.J., Young R.P. & Nicholson E. (2010). Satellite imagery as a single source of predictor variables for habitat suitability modelling: how Landsat can inform the conservation of a critically endangered lemur. Journal of Applied Ecology, in press [email for a pdf]

Guillera-Arroita G., Lahoz-Monfort J.J., Milner-Gulland E.J., Young R.P. & Nicholson E. (2010). Using occupancy as a state variable for monitoring the Critically Endangered Alaotran gentle lemur Hapalemur alaotrensis. Endangered Species Research, 11, 157-166 [email for a pdf]

Nicholson E., Mace G.M., Armsworth P.R., Atkinson G., Buckle S., Clements T., Ewers R.M., Fa J.E., Gardner T.A., Gibbons J., Grenyer R., Metcalfe R., Mourato S., Muûls M., Osborn D., Reuman D.C., Watson C. & Milner-Gulland E.J. (2009). A research agenda for ecosystem services in a changing world. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46, 1139-1144. [email for a pdf]

E. Nicholson, D. A. Keith, and D. S. Wilcove (2009) Assessing the threat status of ecological communities. Conservation Biology, 23 (2): 259-274. [email for a pdf]

E. Nicholson & O. Ovaskainen (2009) Conservation prioritization using metapopulation models. pp 110-121, in Spatial conservation prioritisation: quantitative methods and computational tools (eds. Moilanen A, Possingham HP & Wilson KA). Oxford University Press, Oxford. [email for a pdf]

S. Beissinger, E. Nicholson & H.P. Possingham (2008) Application of population viability analysis to landscape conservation planning. In: Models For Planning Wildlife Conservation In Large Landscapes (eds. Millspaugh JJ & Thompson FR). Elsevier Science, The Netherlands

Possingham, H. P., and E. Nicholson (2007). Principles of landscape design that emerge from a formal problem-solving approach. Pages 520-535 in D. B. Lindenmayer, and R. J. Hobbs, editors. Managing and designing landscapes for conservation: moving from perspectives to principles. Blackwell, Malden, MA.

E. Nicholson & H. P. Possingham (2007) Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species. Ecological Applications 17 (1): 251-265.

E. Nicholson & H. P. Possingham (2006) Objectives for multiple species conservation planning. Conservation Biology 20 (3): 871-881.

E. Nicholson, M. I. Westphal, K. Frank , W. A. Rochester, R. L. Pressey, D. Lindenmayer & H. P. Possingham (2006) A new method for conservation planning for the persistence of multiple species. Ecology Letters 9 (9): 1049-1060.

E. Nicholson, J. F. Ryan, D. Hodgkins (2002) Community data: where does the value lie? Assessing confidence limits of community collected water quality data. Water Science & Technology 45 (11): 193-200.

E. Nicholson, A. Knight & D.S. Wilcove (2007) Assessing portfolio effectiveness and predicting outcomes in ecoregional conservation planning. In. The Nature Conservancy, Gainesville, Florida.

Andrea Coombs Wallace (2008-ongoing) Participatory monitoring of fishers' spatial behaviour: Estimating social costs in local conservation planning

Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita (2008) Occupancy and detectability of Hapalemur alaotrensis: recommendations for monitoring (Distinction) (pdf)

José Lahoz-Monfort (2008) Habitat suitability modelling for the Alaotran gentle lemur (Hapalemur alaotrensis) (Distinction, Gerald Durrell Award for best thesis) (pdf)

Paul de Ornellas (2008) How uncertainty affects conservation planning: a Florida case study (Distinction) (pdf)